Transition management, stimulating a structural change at the societal level

Eliminating discrepancies with long-term trends rather than changing social structure itself

Transition refers to major changes in social structures. Transition management is a methodology for accelerating a transition, founded on the concept of Multi-Level Perspective (MLP). MLP is a theory that captures different aspects of a society in three levels. The micro level at the bottom is our individual behavioral choices and our daily lives. The meso level in the middle is the structure of society: customs, laws, rules, or physical infrastructure. The macro level at the top is long-term trends, which have continued over a span of 50 to 100 years and cannot be changed easily. Global warming and aging population are the phenomenon that fit in this level.

The systems at the meso level occasionally do not fit well with the long-term trends of the macro level. The discrepancy between these two levels negatively affects the functionality of the systems at the meso level. However, the structures are difficult to change themselves once they are developed, even if we, individuals at the micro level, feel that something is going wrong. Transition management is an approach in which we intentionally intervene into the systemic level to resolve its mismatch with the macro level trends.

In the past, when human beings were faced with societal problems, a small group of leaders occasionally tried to make drastic changes in the systems directly in order to implement “ideal” forms of governance. Revolutions were, in a nutshell, aimed at destroying the old system and introducing a new system. However, as we know, this kind of direct intervention into the systems from the top often failed and even led to tragic massacres.

On the other hand, transition management does not seek a direct intervention into the systems. This approach identifies technologies and practices (so called “niches”) that are likely to be dominant in the sustainable society of the future and initiates their experiments on a small scale (i.e., at the micro level). If they get adopted by an increasing number of people and become dominant in the society, the values that are embodied in such technologies and practices become the social norms at the meso level. Let us say a social entrepreneur starts a new initiative for a sustainable society. By supporting the initiative and increasing participation in it, the number of participants will eventually become the majority of society. Thus, the initiative will become the new normal. This kind of approach is called transition management.

The idea of transition or transition management was initially proposed in the Netherlands around 2000. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, neoliberal thinking suddenly started to dominate around the world. Everyone started to believe that each individual has the rights and responsibilities for achieving his or her own wellbeing at the micro level and did not pay enough attention to the challenges of collective action at the meso level. But then so many issues, particularly the threats to our sustainability such as anthropogenic climate change, started to emerge. Reflecting upon this, people started to recognize the importance of governance for achieving sustainability and concepts like sustainability transition have recently drawn attention of scholars and policy-makers.

Achieving decarbonization without immediate ban on fossil fuel

A typical example of global challenge requiring a transition is climate change. For nearly 300 years since the Industrial Revolution, humans have been consuming an enormous amount of fossil fuels. For about 250 years, people did not recognize problems with using fossil fuels. Due to their convenience, they have become the dominant source of energy. However, scientists started to recognize the effect of CO2 emissions to the earth’s atmospheric systems and the fact that the global temperature has been on the rise.

From the MLP, the gap between the Earth’s system and our systems depending heavily on fossil fuels has continuously widened and expanded in recent years. Decarbonization at the meso level is the way of adjusting the gap.

If all of human beings at the micro level suddenly stop using fossil fuels from tomorrow, no more additional CO2 will be produced and the whole anthropogenic climate change issue will be resolved. However, this scenario is practically impossible. On the other hand, if we do not decarbonize sooner or later, climate change will get worse, and if we give up, human beings are likely to face an extinction. Now, how can we shift our societal systems toward decarbonization?

The transition management approach does not involve direct intervention into the system. It is an attempt to change the structure of society by accelerating the use of new technologies and practice for decarbonization at the micro level.

For example, in the transportation sector, the first strategy would be to adopt new technologies to reduce CO2 emissions as much and fast as possible. A shift to electric vehicles (EVs) or using biofuels in airplanes is now being explored, but the speed of their introduction must be increased to the unforeseen level. The second is to change the way individuals travel, such as taking a train instead of a airplane, or riding a bicycle instead of driving a car. The third is to stop travelling altogether. If we all work from home, we don’t have to consume any fossil fuel for commuting. These kinds of shifts are needed in all areas of our life.

But the transition is not an easy affair. For instance, even if you are inclined to purchase an EV, EVs are currently more expensive than the conventional ones and you need enough money to do so. The production of batteries for EV entails many societal issues, such as the geopolitical issues regarding the exploitation of rare metals for EV batteries, and the worries about worsening child labor at the mines in some parts of Africa. Even if we reduce our amount of travel, goods must be delivered to our home instead. Thus decarbonation is not a simple matter to be resolved. Instead of saying, “Let’s not change because it is too much trouble,” we need to explore ways of resolving this wicked problem through strategies such as transition management.

A transition is not a voluntary act but an obligation to our future generations

Transition cannot be accomplished overnight. However, our systems can change in a very short term.

For example, the “Cool Biz” movement was proposed about 20 years ago in Japan. The Japanese government encouraged its citizens to dress down in the summer in order to reduce the use of air conditioners. Suddenly, the office workers started to show up in the offices without ties and jackets. While everyone was feeling the irrationality of wearing suits despite the heat, KOIKE Yuriko, the Minister of the Environment at the time, promoted the idea and it spread quickly. Many of us were feeling that they must do something about this strange practice with office attires. If someone nicely presents a solution, it could go viral.

A key to accelerating transition is to get people interested and motivated without telling them what they should directly. For example, a supermodel who is popular among Gen-Z could rapidly mobilize a large number of volunteer supporters after an earthquake through her social media post in which she was working hard to help the victims. Those followers are motivated because they empathized with her sincere actions. On the other hand, such kinds of viral movement are hard to plan and design intentionally. In my own practice, too, there have been a number of failed attempts to motivate local people to change their behaviors toward sustainability. One just has to be patient and wait until the right moment comes.

Environmental activists who call for a sustainability transition are often driven by their fears about the future, not by their love of the nature. They are arguing that they would die from the climate change. We need to recognize their difference from the conventional nature conservation activists of the 20th century who focused on the preservation of other creatures, not much on human beings ourselves.

The general population of Japan, however, do not have much time and energy available to think about the complex macro level issues and even take actions to resolve them. They are unlikely to give up their precious leisure time for considering these complex issues. However, both climate change and aging population are the very serious issues that would affect our future generations. There has to be something done. Even at the individual level, I hope that people become more aware of the need of transitions, be curious about the issues at the macro level, and consider not only about the immediate future but also about the decades ahead.

* The information contained herein is current as of June 2024.
* The contents of articles on Meiji.net are based on the personal ideas and opinions of the author and do not indicate the official opinion of Meiji University.
* I work to achieve SDGs related to the educational and research themes that I am currently engaged in.

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